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Helder Palaro


Helder Palaro is a quantitative researcher, with interests in portfolio management, tactical asset allocation, volatility trading, trend-following and machine learning applied to finance.

Professional Experience

Founding partner, Bayes Capital Management, London UK (2020-) (company based in São Paulo, Brazil)

Head of Research. Investigating and implementing alternative data, new indicators and new statistical methods for systematic strategies in the Brazilian and global equity markets. Developing a global trend-following/risk-premium strategy across asset classes, trading future contracts.

AZ Quest signs agreement with Bayes Capital

Palaro, H. (2021) Alternative models to portfolio selection in the Brazilian market.
Palaro, H. (2021) Applying the IPCA model in the Brazilian market.
Independent Systematic Trader, Monaco (2013-2020)

Developed and traded several strategies which explored inefficiencies in the global derivative markets, including a volatility arbitrage strategy and an adaptive risk-premium strategy. The strategies were implemented by futures and options exchanged-traded contracts.
Quantitative Researcher, Aquila Capital, Malta (2012-2014) (company based in Hamburg, Germany)

Responsible for the research and development of the FundCreator risk management system, used by the AC Risk Parity family of funds, Aquila Capital, Hamburg. The system was unique in its capability to tightly control a large variety of risk parameters. The fund applied FundCreator on a daily basis to closely track its key risk parameters and to actively optimize the portfolio exposure, thereby ensuring a stable and predictable risk profile over time.
Quantitative Analyst, AHL, Man Group, London UK (2007-2011)

Worked within the volatility arbitrage team. Created strategies for volatility trading using options for several asset classes, such as equities, bonds, commodities and foreign exchange. Developed strategies for delta-hedging options minimizing transaction costs. Fitted volatility models for high-frequency data.
Embedded Systems Programmer, Stoneridge, Campinas, Brazil (1996-1998) Designed Microchip PIC machine-language software for car alarms, power windows and other automotive products.


PhD in Finance, Bayes Business School (formerly known as Cass), City University, London UK (2004-2007)
Kat, H and Helder Palaro (2007) Replication-Based Evaluation of Hedge Fund Performance.
Kat, H and Helder Palaro (2006) Hedge Fund Indexation the Fundcreator Way: Efficient Hedge Fund Indexation without Hedge Funds.
Kat, H and Helder Palaro (2006) Tell Me What You Want, What You Really, Really Want! An Exercise in Tailor-Made Synthetic Fund Creation.
Kat, H and Helder Palaro (2006) Replication and Evaluation of Funds of Hedge Funds Returns, in Fund of Hedge Funds: Performance, Assessment, Diversification and Statistical Properties (eds: Greg Gregoriou), Chapter 3, Elsevier Press.
Kat, H and Helder Palaro (2005) Who Needs Hedge Funds? A Copula-Based Approach to Hedge Fund Return Replication ,
Kat, H and Helder Palaro (2005) Hedge Fund Returns: You Can Make Them Yourself! , Journal of Wealth Management 8, 62-68.
MSc in Statistics, State University of Campinas, Brazil (2002-2004)
Hotta, L K; Lucas, E C and Helder Palaro (2008) Estimation of VaR using Copula and Extreme Value Theory, Multinational Finance Journal 12 (3/4), 205-218.
Hotta, L K and Helder Palaro (2006) Using Conditional Copulas to Estimate Value at Risk, Journal of Data Science 4 (1), 93-115.
BSc in Statistics, State University of Campinas, Brazil (1998-2001)
Electronics Technician, Technical high school of Campinas, Brazil (1993-1996) Electronics, digital circuits, power engineering, telecommunications, control systems, signal processing, instrumentation.

Finance Hub Presentations

Network diversification for a robust portfolio allocation, 20th/Jun/2022.
ML Models for Portfolio Selection in the Brazilian market, 13th/Dec/2021.
Breaking Bad Trends, 20th/Sep/2021.
IPCA Model, 16th/Nov/2020.

Editorial Work

Referee (2017-), Communication in Statistics.
Referee (2012-), Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics.
Referee (2012-), Statistics and Probability Letters.
Referee (2011-), Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation.
Referee (2010-), The Journal of Risk.
Referee (2009-), Asia Pacific Management Review.
Referee (2009-), European Journal of Finance.
Referee (2008-), Brazilian Review of Finance.
Referee (2008-), International Journal of Business and Economics.